They say "all good things come to an end" and Pokémon GO is no exception. It's a fun game that has made tons of revenue but due to the nature of the game it won't last forever, in fact just recently even the game devs themselves acknowledged this (via an article from the awesome Nintendo Life).
Though this end still won't be for a long time, I just want to prepare people for this inevitable day and to have a contingency plan of sorts. When this game shuts down, so will all its servers and all your Pokémon will be gone - players will lose what they worked really hard for and maybe even in some cases accomplished as the result of investing real money into the game, so I want to share what you can do to preserve some of that effort.
So let's explore why this popular and successful game has an expiration date and what you can do in preparation for it…
WHY IT *WILL* END
Primarily, they're running out of Pokémon. Anyone who plays Pokémon GO and knows the Pokémon series in general knows this and has been witnessing it. The game has released up to Generation 6 of the current 8 Generations of Pokémon and it has been releasing roughly one Generation of Pokémon per year. This past year hasn't released many new Pokémon due to the fact that the most recent Generation has the fewest number of Pokémon. Though the next two Generations do have more Pokémon in them, a number of new Pokémon in these upcoming Generations have actually already been implemented into Pokémon GO, namely the regional variants: the Alolan Pokémon and Galarian Pokémon (variations of Pokémon from previous generations, such as Alolan Vulpix and Galarian Farfetch'd). So these upcoming Generations don't actually have quite as many new Pokémon as you may think. In fact, they recently put in a few of the Pokémon from Generation 8 into the game as part of an event, further reducing how many Pokémon are left to be put into the game. There are some unreleased legendary Pokémon that will be put into raids or become a quest reward, and the remaining two Generations will have lots of new legendary Pokémon to do this with as well. The upcoming Pokémon Legends: Arceus on Nintendo Switch will also introduce several new Pokémon, who will likely be put into Pokémon GO after that game's release in 2022. Plus maybe in the next few years we'll get Generation 9 and that will add another year of new Pokémon to add into GO… but then that's kind of it. This game is primarily focused on the idea of going out and catching them all but in about three years they will have run out Pokémon to add into the game.
The game has five main ways to get Pokémon: the standard "out and about" catching, plus trading, raids, hatching eggs and catching them as rewards from quests. If you don't need any more Pokémon or have nearly all of them, you're not going to need to catch as many and thus you will be doing all of these things far less.
From what I know, the main ways players put money into the game is for extra raid passes to do more raids and for incubators to hatch more eggs, with the occasional storage upgrades and special events/quests added in too. But again, you're not going to raid for Pokémon you already have beyond the free passes given to you daily nor shell out real money for extra incubators if the egg hatches are all for Pokémon you already have.
There aren't many reasons to continuously capture repeat Pokémon once you have enough candy to evolve them. You may want to get a stronger version of that Pokémon but the main reason people will keep hunting for Pokémon they already have is the hope of finding a shiny.
Shiny Pokémon are very popular and are a huge part of the continuing appeal of Pokémon GO (it's the main reason why I personally still play). Shiny Pokémon are rather attainable in Pokémon GO in a way unlike almost any other Pokémon game. However, they are still rare and though some hardcore players will genuinely try to "catch 'em all" even with shinies, not everyone is going to be determined to get every Pokémon in shiny form. For many players they are just a nice bonus whenever they appear and are fun to get on Community Days when they are very easily attainable.
Shiny legendary Pokémon are the most sought after and they are the main reason players will often purchase extra raid passes - in the hopes of tipping the scales and moving the odds in their favor in their quest to find a shiny version of a legendary Pokémon. Though many legendary Pokémon have appeared in raids, a number haven't been made available in raids as potentially shiny yet. So there's certainly a lot of life left in the game - and potential revenue - right there. Yet with that said… hardcore players who invest the most in these extra passes will already have shiny versions of all or almost all of the currently available shiny legendary Pokemon. When an old legendary Pokémon is put back into raids for the umpteenth time, those players won't bother raiding for them and will instead save their raid passes - and their money - until a newer one whose shiny form was previously unavailable is then made available. Then when they get that new shiny legendary, they won't bother with hunting it anymore either and they'll wait until the next one… until there are no more of those as well.
It's possible that the game could create new gameplay mechanics and modes to entice players to play and monetize these features… they very well could have more paid quests such as the shiny Mew one and monetize these (shiny Jirachi, anyone?) but I don't feel much success has been had with "new game modes" in recent years - the battles are very basic and not a huge draw, nor are the Mega Raids*. Team Rocket stops have been interesting but, again, part of the appeal is getting Pokémon you don't have, something the game is rapidly running out of. Yeah you can give a Pokémon with a hat but 1) that's not as interesting as a Halloween waifu in other mobile games and 2) once you find your hatted friend and catch it… that's it, you’ve got it.
*Side Note - I recently did a quick Twitter poll to ask about how often players do Mega Raids and with 131 responses: 45% said never, 32% said hardly ever, 21% said sometimes and just 2% said often.
Outside of the players, the game does also make money from sponsors. If companies are willing to sponsor the game or if Niantic are really good at persuading companies to sponsor them, then there's nothing to worry about and the game will live on. But even just recently, a partnership in Japan between 7-Eleven and Pokémon GO came to an end, which will result in over 19,000 PokéStops being removed from the game in Japan (again, courtesy of Nintendo Life). As the game gets older, it will get more and more difficult to persuade businesses to use the game as a platform to advertise on.
Like with any business, whilst you are making money and have creative ideas to keep moving forward, you'll keep going; and once you consistently start losing money and run out of ideas, you'll close up shop. Pokémon GO requires servers and resources in order to run and maintain the game all over the world, which costs money. The game's popularity has meant that many required resources have built up in order to run the game, but that popularity also means it has been making a lot of money, so these costs to maintain it are justified. However, the lack of remaining Pokémon will impact player motivation, participation in raids, efforts to hatch eggs and overall monetary investment into the game from players. As the game ages and players lose interest, there will be fewer sponsors. So if the costs start outweighing the revenue, if the work required to keep the game going just isn't worth it, then they'll want to end the game.
WHAT YOU CAN DO TO SAVE YOUR POKÉMON
So the game won't last forever and, yes, there's still a lot of life left in it (likely a good 5-10 years for sure) but what about all those shinies you worked so hard to get? Even if it's a very long time from now, you don't want to lose them some day. So is there anything you can do to save them? Well, if Pokémon GO is the only Pokémon game you play... then nothing much. But if you play other Pokémon games, then you actually can save these Pokémon by transferring them over into other Pokémon games and using them there. This is what I personally recommend and have done with several Pokémon already. At the very least I suggest keeping this in mind and making a plan for what Pokémon you may want to save some day, should they announce the game will shut down. (You could even use the game’s Tag system to label them)
If you have shiny Pokémon you never use that just sit there in Pokémon GO, you may want to consider moving them into another game if you have other Pokémon games you actively play, especially whilst you are still engaged in Pokémon GO. For shiny Pokémon you actually do use in Pokémon GO and cherish having in the game, you'll want to keep these options in the back of your mind so that when the end comes, you'll have a way to save that Pokémon and it can continue living.
For example, I had extra shinies from Community Days, some random weak shinies I've found that I never look at and some shiny legendary Pokémon that I never get to use since I can't put them in Gyms and are not strong enough for raids, so I moved them over. For me, I felt if it my shinies weren't being used or looked at, if they were just some pieces of data in a cloud server, then they may as well be some pieces of data in my Nintendo Switch instead. But I have a strong, shiny Ho-Oh in Pokémon GO that I do use for raids, so I'll keep it in my game until I either feel the end is near or if I stop using it.
You can move the original 151 Pokémon plus Meltan and Melmetal directly into Pokémon Let's Go, Pikachu and Pokémon Let's Go, Eevee on the Nintendo Switch but you can also move any of your Pokémon into Pokémon HOME and then move select Pokémon into Pokémon Sword and Shield on the Nintendo Switch from there. (There could even be connectivity allowing transferring to the upcoming Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl too)
But what is Pokémon HOME? Pokémon HOME is an app, which you can get for free on the Nintendo Switch AND on the App Store for your phone or tablet. Each version of the app works a little differently but so long as you have the app on at least one of them and an account set up, you'll be good to go.
In short, Pokémon HOME is a cloud storage service that also enables online trades and some other features too, dependant on the version you are using - Switch or mobile. There's a premium service you can pay for that essentially allows for more of everything but you can use it for FREE to transfer Pokémon from GO into HOME and then into Pokémon Sword and Shield. For the free version, you can store up to 30 Pokémon. As mentioned, not every Pokémon is available to move into Pokémon Sword and Shield (but over 600 Pokémon are available in the games), however Pokémon HOME will likely be used to transfer Pokémon into future Generations as well, so some Pokémon that are presently unavailable could be usable in future Pokémon games. (Even if Pokémon HOME itself doesn't last forever either, there will be some replacement or natural successor to it, whereas with GO there won't be)
If you don't play other Pokémon games but think you might some day, you could still do this if they announce the end of Pokémon GO and you want to preserve something. It could be lovely to save a Pokémon by transferring it to HOME just before GO ends and then reunite with it one day when you get a future Pokémon game :)
If you had more than 30 Pokémon you want to transfer, you could always move 30 into Pokémon HOME, then move as many as you can from HOME into Sword and Shield and then add more Pokémon into HOME after that. If you have the Premium (paid) version of HOME, you can store up to 6000 Pokémon.
Keep in mind that for transferring shiny Pokémon from GO into HOME, you can transfer about 4 regular shinies per week or 1 shiny legendary Pokémon per week. You can use the in-game currency to speed up this process but it's very costly and it's better to just plan efficiently. This is why I've already been moving over Pokémon and highly suggest making some kind of plan - because it takes a lot of time. If you had about a dozen shiny legendary Pokémon, that's about 3 months of real time in order to move them over. This is why I suggest making a plan for what you want to move and when you'd want to move it, and doing anything early that you can afford to do early. When they one day announce that the game is going to end - we don't know how long it will be between announcing the game will end and it actually ending. (For two other Nintendo mobile games that shut down - Doctor Mario World and Miitomo - there were just over 3 months between the announcement of each game ending and it shutting down. So it could be a similar amount for Niantic one day)
So those are my thoughts and recommendations - as the game runs out of Pokémon, just keep an eye on things and keep this exit strategy in mind. With some planning and looking ahead, you'll be able to save a bunch of amazing Pokémon you've worked hard for, would otherwise lose and you get to use them for generations to come in other Pokémon games :)
Regigigas will soon move from Pokémon GO (left) to Pokémon HOME (right) to be with the many other Pokémon that I've moved over. Tyranitar and Ho-Oh will stay put for the time being but will one day join them